Despite all the doom and gloom we are being fed by the 24-hour news cycle, there is reason to be optimistic heading into the next few weeks of the pandemic.

Ontario Public Health data shows that the number of active cases in the province has likely peaked and in many areas is slowly dropping. Here in Ottawa, the number of active cases has been decreasing since Jan. 4 when they peaked at 11,654. By Friday, the number had dropped by more than half to 5,103. That number may increase slightly due to a lag in testing results, but it won’t change significantly.

The decrease in active cases locally is also reflected in the wastewater samples being tested by Ottawa Public Health.

Provincially, the number of active cases peaked on Monday, Jan. 10 at 140,523. By Thursday the number had dropped to 111,496.

Unfortunately, the decrease in active cases both provincially and locally has not yet been mirrored by a decrease in hospitalizations which tend to lag behind the active case trend by about 10 days to two weeks.

Hospitalizations have been on a steady rise since Christmas, about two weeks after the number of active cases began to spike. On Dec. 25, there were only 14 people in Ottawa’s hospitals with COVID. By Jan. 1, that number had more than quadrupled to 57. A week later it had risen to 90 and eventually 94 as of Sunday, Jan. 9. Since then, it has slowly been dropping.

On Jan. 10, Ottawa Public Health was reporting there were 88 people in Ottawa’s hospitals with COVID. Four days later, they were reporting there 69 people with COVID in Ottawa’s hospitals. But the numbers are fluid and constantly changing from day to day. The reason is because not everyone in hospital with COVID were admitted because of it. Some may have been admitted for other causes only to find out they have COVID. Others may have caught the virus while they were in hospital.

For instance, on Wednesday, Jan 12, OPH were reporting that there were 61 hospitalizations on Jan. 10. The next day that number was changed to 72 and two days later it was changed again to 88.

Provincially, the number of hospitaliza-tions continued on a steady trajectory last week, starting out at 2,467 on Monday, Jan. 10 and ending up at 3,957 by Saturday, Jan. 15, reflecting again the increase in active cases between Dec. 20 and Jan. 4.

With that in mind, hospitalizations should begin to plateau this week.

On a bright note, the rate of hospitaliza-tion and the rate of acute illness and death with the Omicron variant is a fraction of what it was during the Delta wave last April.

At that time, the rate of hospitalizations as a factor of active cases was between five and six per cent, both provincially an locally. During the current wave, the rate of hospitalizations has been between two and three per cent provincially and less than one per cent locally.

Even more significant is the rate of acute illness and death. Back last April, the combined number of ICU patients and COVID-related deaths stood at nearly 30 per cent of hospitalizations. Last week, it was around 14 per cent both provincially and locally.

The difference is a combination of more people being vaccinated between last April and today, especially with a booster shot, and recent findings that show that the Omicron variant is less severe in terms of illness than the previous Delta variant.
All of which spells good news for those hoping to get back to the pre-Omicron days of fewer restrictions, which may happen sooner than later given the most recent data being reported here and elsewhere in Canada..