During the COVID-19 pandemic we have been inundated with numbers... total cases, new cases, deaths, hospitalizations, cumulative hospitalizations, occupied ICU beds, resolved cases, number of cases in LTCs, number of deaths in LTCs, number of tests, etc. etc. etc. It’s enough to make you dizzy.

Since the pandemic began the mainstream media and public health officials in North America have been focused on just two numbers – the total number of cases and the total number of COVID-19 related deaths.

The early reporting neglected to separate the number of cases and deaths in long-term care homes from the number of cases in the general population. In fact, the practice is still very much in effect. Now everyone may have their own theory on why that is, but I believe the answer is simple – it’s been done that way to strengthen the narrative that the virus is lurking around every corner and you could be next so shelter at home and stay there

If the powers that be were to separate the two numbers, the number of deaths in the general population would be far less scary. For instance of the 260 deaths that were reported in Ottawa as of June 18, 236 occurred in either a long-term care facility (221), a senior’s residence (11) or the hospital (4). That leaves 24 people who have died in Ottawa outside of an institution since the outbreak began, most of whom had underlying health issues. Twenty four is far less scary than 260.

The most egregious misuse of the numbers can be found on the OPH’s ward by ward map of cases. The map is posted biweekly and lists the total number of residents who have tested positive for COVID-19 for each ward. The problem is that the numbers posted are misleading to say the very least. First of all, the numbers are listed per 100,000. For instance, it lists 94 residents in Orléans Ward 1 who have tested positive for COVID-19 per 100,000 based on the 2016 Census.

In actuality there were 48,789 residents living in the ward in 2016. When you do the math it turns out that only 46 residents have tested positive for the virus. But even that number only tells half the story because it does not take into account how many of those people have fully recovered. City wide the recovery rate is 84%. When you apply that number to the 46 known cases, the number of active cases in Orléans Ward is closer to seven.

So why does Ottawa Public Health present the largest figure possible without any qualifiers? Because it better fits the narrative that the coronavirus is everywhere and therefore you need to stay home and only go out if it’s absolutely necessary. Unfortunately that is counterproductive in the effort to start opening things up and getting the economy and jobs back on track.