It’s been exactly two months since Justin Trudeau announced his intention to step down as Liberal leader and turn over the job of Prime Minister once the party had chosen a successor. At the time, support for the Trudeau-led Liberals had sunk to just 20.1 per cent, according to Ipsos Canada polling, which was the lowest it had been since the last election in September 2021.

At the same time, support for the federal Conservative Party had soared to 44.2 per cent and there was a 98 per cent probability that they would not only win a general election, but form a majority government as well. The same poll predicted the Liberals could be reduced to as few as 29 seats and end up in third place behind the NDP.

But that was before Donald Trump was sworn in as the 47th president of the United States of America. It was also a month before Trump reiterated his intention to impose sweeping tariffs against Canada and Mexico.

Trudeau’s announcement also triggered a shift in Canadian voter sentiment in favour of the Liberals that has yet to slow down.

Prior to Trudeau’s decision, he was a giant millstone around the neck of the Liberal Party and the best weapon the Conservatives had in the run up to a potential election. But while his leaving meant that the Liberals might avoid the same fate the Conservatives suffered in the 1993 federal election when they were reduced to just two seats, it didn’t have people running to place a bet that they might somehow stay in power.

It wasn’t until Donald Trump’s continued barbs at making the Canada the 51st state, that the Liberals’ fortunes started to make an about face to the point where they now only trail the Conservatives in the polls by nine percentage points. In six weeks, Conservative support has dropped from 44.5 per cent to 40.2 per cent after being on a steady increase since mid-November. In the meantime, public support for the Liberal Party has grown from 20.1 per cent to 30.8 per cent.

And the Conservatives haven’t made it any easier on themselves by reluctantly distancing themselves from Trump and his administration. That reluctance has been seen by many Canadians as weakness.

As far as the average man or woman on the street is concerned, Donald Trump is a republican and republicans are conservatives.

It took until Canada Flag Day that Pierre Poilievre finally stood up in front of the national media and said that Canada would never become the 51st state. Whether or not his words will resonate with voters has yet to be seen. One thing is for sure, Donald Trump isn’t making things any easier for the Conservatives.

It’s gotten to the point that whenever the election is finally called Pierre Poilievre will be running against five opponents – the next Liberal leader (whoever that is), NDP leader Jagmeet Singh, Bloc Québécois leader Yves-François Blanchet, Green Party leader Elizabeth May and Donald J. Trump.