A lot is being written and said about the inevitability of a second wave of COVID-19 infections here in Canada with words such as “spike”, “surge” and “tsunami” being bandied about. “It’s not matter of if, but when,” they warn.

I have my own theory, of course, which I will share with you. Personally, I think the second wave will likely be more of a ripple than a “tsunami” at least outside the island of Montreal and the GTA.

First, there just aren’t a lot of cases here in Ottawa. There were only 58 confirmed active cases as of last Friday. That’s down considerably from two weeks previous when there were 87 active cases in Ottawa and Friday, June 12 when there were 72 active cases. Even if there were 30 times that number of cases in Ottawa, the fact of the matter is that the rate of transmission is continuing on a downward trend despite things opening up and increased testing.

Of course there has been the odd spike in new cases. For instance there were seven new cases on June 9 and eight on June 10. But that was followed by one new cases on June 11 and no new cases on June 12 and 13.

Small increases should be expected, especially as things continue to open up, but I don’t expect a huge second wave in the coming weeks, and here’s why.

When the first wave hit no one was taking any precautions. There was no physical distancing, or people wearing masks. In fact, just the opposite. People were still shaking hand, or kissing each other on the cheek. They were still riding the transit system en masse. Theatres, fitness centres and bars were still open and people were walking around hacking and coughing, thinking they had a bad cold or the flu. And last but by no means least, senior care facilities were operating business as normal.

On March 17, when Premier Doug Ford declared a state of emergency in Ontario there were 168 cases in Ottawa. By the end of the two week incubation period, that number had swollen to 440 on March 31 and a good number of those cases were in senior care facilities. In fact, there were outbreaks at five different care facilities in Ottawa by March 29 and 12 by April 5.

The mere fact that senior care facilities now have the proper protocols in place to limit any potential outbreaks will help prevent a potential massive second wave, as will the fact that people aren’t shaking hands anymore and most are practicing adequate physical distancing.

I have a few Facebook friends who continue to make gloom and doom predictions based on what’s happening south of the border, but that’s like comparing oranges to cue balls. Both are round, but the similarities stop there.

The only way for a second wave to take the form of a tsunami is if we throw all the precautions out the proverbial window, allow bars and theatres to reopen and see mass gatherings at concerts and sporting events again and I just don’t see any of that happening until a vaccine is wildly available.

Of course, we don’t even know yet whether the COVID-19 virus will stick around or simply peter out over time like the SARS and MERS viruses did.

According to most virologists, even if COVID-19 is here to stay it should become less deadly over time as it con-tinues to evolve and mutate.

Even if there is a vaccine, there will still be some people who will catch the virus because they either didn’t get vaccinated for personal reasons, or couldn’t for health reasons, as is currently the case with the flu – and some may potentially die, as is also currently the case with the flu.

Over time, people will talk about COVID-19 in the same terms they currently do about the flu. When people get a get a bad cold they’re at thankful they don’t have the flu. It will be the same way for the coronavirus. When people have the flu they’ll be thankful it’s not COVID-19.

The optimist in me is hopeful the virus will peter out over time and will become but a distant memory. But even if it doesn’t. Even if it’s here to stay. We can look forward to an eventual vaccine and increasingly more effective treatments which will limit the number of hospital-izations and reduce the number of deaths.

In a nutshell, we will learn to live with it and get on with our lives.

(If you wish to comment on this or any other View Point column please write to Fred Sherwin at fsherwin@orleansstar.ca)